By Aidan O’Sullivan
For top European leaders and officials, all eyes have turned towards Poland over the last few weeks.
The narrow presidential victory of Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist historian linked to the right wing Polish party Law and Justice (PIS) has further increased anxieties for European leaders who fear a nationalistic right wing Europe.
According to the Polish state electoral Commission (PKW), Nawrocki won 50.9% of the early June vote. His opponent, the Liberal mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski lost, receiving 49.1% in the second round.
While mostly a ceremonial role, the Polish presidency does hold veto powers, enabling Nawrocki to halt current Polish PM Donald Tusk’s pro EU agenda.
In all likelihood Nawrocki will continue the trend of current conservative president Andrzeg Duda who has prevented Tusk from loosening the country’s strict abortion laws and from rolling back recent reforms.
The EU has been consistently critical of the PIS led judicial reforms of 2019 for lacking in the proper separation of powers. Earlier this year the EU’s general court confirmed the European commission’s 320 million euro fine against Poland on the issue.
In 2023, the European Court of Justice claimed that the reform infringed on EU law and also ruled in favour of a Polish judge who had been dismissed by the disciplinary body set up by the PIS led government.
This shift right comes after the recent Portuguese elections which saw the rise of a traditional Catholic right wing party Chega. Chega now has the same amount of seats as the second largest party in the Portuguese parliament, the Socialist Party (PS).
The election of Nawrocki calls into question whether the EU will halt funding—as it had done previously—if Tusk is unable to make significant reforms.
Nawrocki has run on an EU critical agenda but is unlikely to push for anything as drastic as the Brexit crisis.
Since its acceptance into the EU, Poland has been one of Europe’s biggest success stories. From being caught between the two great powers of Germany and Russia, Poland has transformed itself into a wealthy state with a powerful if as of yet untested military strength.
According to a report by the Danish institute of international studies between joining the European Union in 2004 and 2020, Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) nearly tripled and is now the 6th largest contributor to the EU economy representing 4.31% of the bloc’s total GDP.
Nawroki will not want to give up the benefits of the European Customs union, but his stance has remained eurosceptic and Polish nationalist first and foremost.
In fact, the EU’s desire for conflict may now be constrained by other interests. The Polish
State has taken in more Ukrainian refugees than any other country and the recent push for European rearmament may make EU officials more hesitant to critique the Polish government. If the EU wants Polish support in Ukraine and in rearmament what will it be willing to ignore?
Poland is one of the few highly militarised European states. Poland’s defence budget has tripled within the last decade, becoming the biggest spender on defence as a proportion of GDP within NATO.
How Poland’s growing wealth and geostrategic significance in a Europe desperate to achieve military independence from the States is unclear.
Nawrocki eagerly established relations with Trump on the campaign trail, and his first foreign interview was with a Hungarian news outlet connected to the Viktor Orban administration where he proclaimed that he was against a Ukraine entry into the EU.
Poland is an interesting comparison to Ireland. As both Catholic dominated states who have benefitted from modernisation as part of the EU they have since charted different paths.
In contrast to Ireland which within a relatively short period has gone from a tightly wound religious state to one having legalised same-sex marriage and loosening abortion regulation, Poland has seen a less than smooth cultural transformation.
While there are large Liberal urban centres in Poland, the core of Nawrocki’s support is a rural Catholic and traditional Polish identity which sees itself as embodying the true Polish nation. His voter share leans heavily male but has also been attracting young conservatives. According to some exit polls, 52.9% of 18-29 year-olds and 53.7% of 30-39 year-olds voted for Nawrocki. Significantly, this suggests an uptick in rightwing sentiment among young voters.